What the variance teaches
Plan against actual, where the error actually was, and how the next plan changes because of it.
Plan Against Actual
How to compare a capacity plan with what happened, the three kinds of difference it produces, and why most variance analysis measures the wrong thing.
Where the Error Actually Was
The five places a capacity plan can be wrong, how to tell which one produced a given variance, and why the answer is rarely the one everybody assumes.
Systematic Error and Noise
How to tell a rate that needs changing from a quarter that was unusual, the four-period rule, and why single-period corrections make plans worse.
The Shrinkage Figure, Recalculated
When to recalculate the deductions in a capacity account, which lines go stale fastest, and how to do the recalculation without a measurement project.
Variance That Is Really a Claim Nobody Closed
Why a large share of apparent overrun is bookkeeping rather than delivery, the three patterns that reveal it, and the close that prevents it.
Reading Variance Without Blame
How to run a variance review that produces corrections rather than defensiveness, which questions to ask, and the three questions that guarantee nobody tells you anything useful again.
A Plan You Can Defend
What makes a capacity plan survive questioning: the four properties, what to do about the figures you cannot evidence, and how a defensible plan behaves when it turns out to be wrong.